I just read one recent study on relationship of injury
rate to team standing at the end of the season. You can find the free full text
HERE,
but here is the abstract anyway.
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Eirale C, Tol JL, Farooq A, Smiley F, Chalabi H. Low injury rate strongly correlates with
team success in Qatari professional football. Br J Sports Med. 2012 Aug 17.
Abstract
Using a prospective cohort study design, this study
captured exposure and injuries in Qatar male elite football for a season.
Club performance was measured by total league points, ranking, goal scored,
goals conceded and number of matches won, drawn or lost. Lower injury
incidence was strongly correlated with team ranking position (r=0.929,
p=0.003), more games won (r=0.883, p=0.008), more goals scored (r=0.893,
p=0.007), greater goal difference (r=0.821, p=0.003) and total points
(r=0.929, p=0.003).
CONCLUSIONS: Lower incidence rate was strongly
correlated with team success. Prevention of injuries may contribute to team
success.
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All studies of this kind are more than welcome. There is
couple of them trying to show correlation between injuries
and team performance/season outcomes with not so clear relationship like this
one.
My argument here is who is first – chicken or the egg?
With observational studies we are not able to make any causation claims, even
if it is common sense. We need experimental study, but that is very hard or
nearly impossible to do in these scenarios.
So, the correlation claim should go two way – teams with
lower injuries show better standing and teams with better standing show lower
injuries. Thus the causation claim from studies like this should also be
two-way: if you want a better success as a team reduce injuries AND if you want
reduced injuries you better be a successful team. Without experimental study we
don’t know what caused what – that’s the way correlation works. We don’t know
what the change in one variable will yield in another. Hence the importance of
learning statistics.
Suppose your team is on a winning spree. How do you
feel? Awesome. How does this affect your stress levels and ability to sustain
loads? Positively.
Suppose your team is on a losing spree. How do you
feel? Like s*it. How does this affect your stress levels and ability to sustain
loads? Negatively.
Thus the same physical workload in those scenarios
will yield different reactions and thus different injury potential (IMHO).
Hence my comment that if you want to decrease injuries you better play good :).
Yes, the data from the study like this can be used as a proof for this claim.
I would love to do a point
biserial correlation between wellness score 3-days after a game and game
outcome (win, loss, draw), but I don’t have much data at the moment to make it
valid. That might give some insights about the influence of the game outcomes
on the perception of wellness and even training loads (if you track sRPE), and
also correlate injuries with both of those data (we can also use some
psychological tests of personality as moderator and even some screening tests).
This is still observational, but it might give some more significant data. Idea
for the study anyone?
